Institutional transit & chokepoint risk intelligence for cargo & marine underwriters Powered by the Synlogica intelligence service How it works
by Synlogica GRIP Risk Intelligence
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Risk Intelligence / Methodology

Documentation

Methodology & data provenance

Technical summary for risk, compliance, and underwriting stakeholders evaluating GRIP Risk Intelligence.

Scope

Measured outputs

  • Geo transit score (0–100) and recommendation per jurisdiction
  • GRIP composite (structure + conflict + sanctions)
  • Chokepoint severity for maritime and airway corridors
  • Sanctions programme alignment (OFAC, EU, UN)
Exclusions

Out of scope

  • Entity-level sanctions screening or counterparty due diligence
  • Loss probability or actuarial P(loss)
  • Premium, hull value, or PML calculations
  • Official insurance ratings or binding underwriting decisions
Operations

Refresh & quality

  • Daily UTC intelligence cycle
  • Fallback assessments excluded from GRIP blending
  • Tripwire alerts on state transitions only

Primary data sources

Conflict
Open-source conflict-event pipelines
Structural
World Bank WGI and logistics baselines
Narrative
Curated X corpus and RSS synthesis (cost-capped AI synthesis)

GRIP composite (simplified)

The composite blends a structural country baseline with observed conflict intensity and country-level sanctions programme status. Component weights are documented in the diligence pack; the methodology is versioned and material changes are announced to API clients in advance.

Structural baseline acts as a floor. Conflict intensity and sanctions escalate the composite when conditions deteriorate. Fresh geo transit inputs are blended when available and not marked as fallback.

Model card — GRIP Risk Intelligence public outputs

schema v1 · daily UTC
Model name
GRIP Risk Intelligence composite risk map (public preview + paid API)
Intended use
Operational awareness for cargo and marine underwriting desks: jurisdiction-level transit risk, sanctions programme alignment, and maritime chokepoint severity. Supports watchlists and pre-loss exposure review — not binding underwriting decisions.
Inputs
  • Conflict events (open-source event pipelines)
  • Structural baselines (World Bank WGI, logistics indices)
  • Sanctions programme lists (OFAC, EU, UN — country level)
  • Curated narrative corpus (RSS + stored posts; cost-capped AI synthesis)
  • Geo transit assessments (daily per jurisdiction, fallback rows excluded from GRIP blend)
Outputs
  • GRIP score 0–100 per jurisdiction with risk band and trend delta
  • Geo transit score with PROCEED / CAUTION / AVOID recommendation
  • Chokepoint risk level (maritime and airway corridors)
  • Truncated narrative reason string (public preview redacted)
Refresh cadence
Daily intelligence cycle (UTC). Public marketing map enforces ≥24h preview delay. Paid API clients receive the current daily snapshot on the same cycle.
Known limitations
  • Country-level only — no entity or vessel sanctions screening
  • No lane-level or vessel-level scoring — jurisdiction + chokepoint context only
  • No loss probability, premium, or PML estimation
  • Open-source and licensed feeds may lag breaking events; fallback assessments are flagged and excluded from GRIP blending
  • Public preview omits baseline scores, conflict coefficients, and chokepoint analyst notes
Evaluation
Desk review against independent news and claims data during pilot; tripwire alerts measured on state-transition precision (not headline volume). Full evaluation protocol available in the diligence pack.
Contact
sales@synlogica.pl

Regulatory disclaimer

GRIP Risk Intelligence outputs are operational intelligence signals for awareness and monitoring. They are not insurance advice, underwriting instructions, actuarial certification, or official country ratings. Clients remain solely responsible for all coverage, pricing, and policy decisions.

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